Seize the momentum and build new energy vehicles into “China’s business card”

Author：DavisDate：2024-3-20

In recent years, my country's new energy vehicle industry has been developing well and has initially formed a comprehensive competitive advantage at the global level. This is mainly due to the technological foundation and industrial chain supply chain system cultivated by my country's strong domestic market over the years. In the future, we should further accelerate the construction of a new open economic system, give full play to the role of market mechanisms, make extensive and rational use of global industrial chain resources, effectively manage and control risks, and build my country's new energy automobile industry into a new economic growth engine and make it a " Chinese business card”.

my country's new energy automobile industry has initially formed an industrial chain and supply chain foundation that is in line with globalization in the new era.

First, my country’s new energy automobile industry has relatively comprehensive advantages.

In recent years, my country's new energy automobile industry has advantages in production costs and production efficiency in some core parts and vehicle manufacturing fields. The industrial chain and supply chain are relatively complete, and the overall advantages are outstanding, driving the rapid development of the industry. First, the scale of production and sales has been further expanded. Data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers shows that from January to September 2023, my country's new energy vehicle industry maintained a strong development momentum, with production and sales reaching 6.313 million vehicles and 6.278 million vehicles respectively, a year-on-year increase of 33.7% and 37.5% respectively. New energy vehicles Sales accounted for 29.8% of total new car sales. Among them, my country's new energy passenger vehicles have developed more significantly. From January to September, my country's new energy passenger vehicles accounted for 61% of the world's new energy passenger vehicles, and in the third quarter, the proportion reached 65%. October data shows that BYD's total sales from January to October exceeded 2.381 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 70.36%. It is the global sales champion of new energy vehicles and is expected to achieve the annual sales target of 3 million vehicles set at the beginning of the year. The China Passenger Vehicle Market Information Joint Conference predicts that my country's new energy passenger vehicle sales will reach 8.5 million units in 2023, narrow passenger vehicle sales will reach 23.5 million units, and the annual new energy vehicle penetration rate is expected to reach 36%. Second, the technical level has improved rapidly. The energy density of my country's large-scale mass-produced power battery cells has reached 300 Wh/kg, the average driving range of pure electric passenger cars exceeds 460 kilometers, and the proportion of passenger cars with L2 and above autonomous driving functions exceeds 40%.

Second, the export advantage has emerged and is expected to be further expanded.

Data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers shows that from January to September 2023, my country exported 3.388 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 60%, which has exceeded the export volume of 3.111 million vehicles last year. Relevant organizations predict that my country's automobile exports are expected to exceed 5 million units in 2023, becoming the first in the world. In terms of vehicle types, 2.839 million passenger vehicles were exported, a year-on-year increase of 67.4%; commercial vehicle exports were 549,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 30.2%. In terms of power type, the export of traditional fuel vehicles was 2.563 million units, a year-on-year increase of 48.3%; the export of new energy vehicles was 825,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 1.1 times, becoming the backbone of my country's automobile exports. While export volume is increasing, bicycle prices are also increasing. In the first three quarters, while my country's complete vehicle export volume increased by 60% year-on-year, the export value increased by 83.7% year-on-year. At present, the average price of my country's new energy vehicles in overseas markets has risen to US$30,000 per vehicle. The increase in the average price of new energy vehicles has become an important factor driving the growth of my country's automobile exports.

Third, continue to expand the European and American markets.

Although some European and American brands, such as Tesla, still have certain advantages in terms of electrified smart technology and product performance, my country's new energy vehicle companies are catching up faster after enduring the harsh test of domestic consumers. At present, automotive software systems have gradually caught up with advanced technology, and have even begun to lead in some technical aspects. With advanced technology and reasonable prices, my country's new energy vehicles have not only occupied the domestic market share, but also begun to expand into European and American markets. At present, my country's electric vehicles account for 10% of the total sales of electric vehicles in Europe. Affected by the current tightening of the supply chain and the crisis in Ukraine, European automobile production has been restricted, but social demand has not changed much, resulting in an increasing supply gap in Europe and the United States. Therefore, despite being suppressed by European and American policies, my country's new energy vehicles are still expected to further expand exports to the European and American markets. In addition, my country's local brand new energy vehicles are no longer synonymous with "cheap goods", but have become representatives of high-quality products. For example, the new Han EV Genesis Edition top-of-the-line model launched by BYD in the Brazilian market is priced 2-3 times the domestic average price and is quite popular locally.

The accelerated growth of new energy vehicles has ushered in a new opportunity period for my country's automobile exports to achieve scale effects and brand effects. my country can rely on its first-mover advantage to grasp the changing trends and guidance of the automotive industry, further optimize policies, and transform cost-effective competitiveness into technological gold and brand premiums.

The development of my country's new energy automobile industry is rooted in the institutional advantages of the socialist market economy

The successful development of my country's new energy vehicle industry fully reflects my country's overall advantages, including its institutional superiority. In contrast, in European and American countries, the overall transition from traditional automobiles to new energy vehicles is slow. In addition to the lack of motivation for transformation caused by the advantages of the traditional automobile industry, short-sighted policy implementation has led to insufficient development continuity, and "capital profit-seeking constraints" have led to deformed industrial development. . Looking at a deeper level, this is a systemic deficiency.

The successful development of my country's new energy vehicle industry further reflects its overall advantages.

my country's new energy vehicle companies have made long-term accumulation in vehicle manufacturing and related battery technologies, and have achieved "changing lanes and overtaking" in the automotive field. This is inseparable from the role of my country's socialist market economic system. Comparing the industrial policies of Europe and the United States further highlights the institutional advantages of the socialist market economy as the key to the success of the development of the new energy automobile industry.

In 2009, my country has begun to pay attention to the development of new energy vehicles, batteries and energy storage. In 2012, my country identified new energy vehicles as a strategic emerging industry. At this time, an industrial battery manufacturer in the United States was facing bankruptcy. Since then, my country has focused on the research of key industrial core technologies and cutting-edge technologies, and launched long-term socialist market economy-related policies to provide key support, cultivate and promote the development of the new energy vehicle industry, and ultimately reduce product prices for new energy vehicle manufacturers. , increasing production and improving brand quality have created the possibility and promoted my country's new energy vehicles to the world stage.

The slow development of the new energy vehicle industry in Europe and the United States is largely due to the system of “capital profit-seeking constraints”.

Almost at the same time that our country began to pay attention to the development of new energy vehicles, the U.S. government launched the "American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009", which supports the promotion of innovation, the development of green energy, and the promotion of manufacturing development. To this end, more than US$90 billion has been allocated for clean energy, and billions of US dollars have been invested in lithium-ion battery research and development, lithium battery recycling, new energy vehicle component production and charging station construction. But today, more than ten years later, the overall effect is not good. In the field of green energy market and technology, the United States not only does not occupy a dominant position, but also lags behind our country as a whole. The main reason is that the United States has not created a good overall industrial ecology and failed to maintain competitive advantages in core areas where it originally had advantages. On the one hand, the U.S.’s insufficient economic governance capabilities result in a lack of continuity and sustainability in the U.S. new energy industry development plan. For example, not long after the Obama administration launched the green transformation, the Trump administration returned to traditional energy sources after taking office, and after Biden took office, it turned to the development of new energy minerals. Insufficient economic governance capabilities make long-term development goals full of uncertainty, and short-term guidance funds from industrial policies cannot effectively drive long-term commercial funds in the market, which overall harms the development of its new energy automobile industry. On the other hand, the role of interest groups and the "profit-seeking constraints of capital" have led to deformed industrial development. More than ten years ago, U.S. policy leaders made a relatively accurate judgment on the development direction of the green industry. However, due to the strong control of internal interest groups in Europe and the United States, such as some financial forces, industrial development policy funds are easily manipulated, resulting in a "hollowing out" of the manufacturing industry. and other comprehensive factors make it easy for market funds to flow to links with low costs and quick short-term results. Those core links in the manufacturing industry that are extremely important to enhance the competitiveness of the industry lack various types of capital investment, making it difficult to truly reduce production costs and promote the upgrading of the industrial chain. From a deeper perspective, this is due to the "capital profit-seeking constraints" system of the American capitalist system.

It is difficult to be optimistic about the current effects of the U.S. government’s industrial policies.

In August 2022, Biden signed the "Inflation Reduction Act", which aims to guide the United States to invest in energy security and climate change in the next ten years, including supporting the new energy automobile industry; in October, according to the "Bipartisan Infrastructure Act", Biden The government announced the first batch of funding projects to expand the construction of new energy vehicle battery production and charging facilities in the United States and gradually replace "materials and components currently imported from other countries." Judging from the situation in the past year since its implementation, the industrial policy launched by the U.S. government to invest in new energy vehicles, batteries and charging facilities on a large scale may have resulted in greater restrictions on Chinese companies’ participation in the U.S. new energy vehicle market through trade or investment, and also To a certain extent, it has stimulated the development of battery and electric vehicle supply chains and manufacturing capabilities in the United States, but overall the current policies in the United States have limited effects. An in-depth exploration of the reasons is that, first, this industrial policy of the United States has limited effect on the development of the entire industry chain of its new energy vehicle manufacturing industry. Judging from the subsidy list, the 20 companies funded by the bill's policies are mainly upstream companies that refine lithium, positive and negative electrodes, separators, electrolytes and other key battery materials. They focus on cutting-edge technologies and do not involve battery manufacturing, battery packs and other companies. This may be possible It brings breakthroughs in cutting-edge technologies in some fields, but has limited effect on improving the overall manufacturing capabilities and large-scale development of the United States. Second, there is insufficient talent protection in the process of implementing policies. Currently, there is a shortage of experienced battery engineers in the United States. Third, it is actually difficult for the United States to fully guarantee the stable supply of key minerals. At present, 90% of key raw materials such as nickel, lithium and cobalt used in electric vehicles are not processed and produced in the United States. It is not easy to ensure a stable supply of these mineral materials in the United States.

Strive to create a new domestic growth engine and a “China business card” for industrial development

In order to better serve and integrate into the new development pattern, enhance the endogenous power of domestic circulation, and improve the quality and level of international circulation, our country should give full play to the decisive role of the market in resource allocation, better play the role of the government, and accelerate the construction of a high-level open economy. The new economic system will make full use of global industrial chain resources and control related risks to create a new domestic growth engine and a "China business card" for high-end industries.

First, give full play to the decisive role of the market in resource allocation and enhance the comprehensive competitiveness of domestic car companies through product quality improvement.

First, give full play to the role of market mechanisms. Accelerate the construction of a higher-level new open economic system, enhance the competitiveness of the domestic market, allow the market to continuously eliminate backward technologies and optimize production capacity, form a more competitive domestic industrial development ecology, and continuously improve the comprehensive competition of domestic new energy automobile companies. force. The second is to give full play to the guiding role of policy funds. Use policy funds to leverage and guide more market funds to support and supplement the shortcomings of the new energy automobile industry such as power batteries, software systems, charging and swapping infrastructure networks, and after-sales service systems, and promote the optimized growth of the entire industry chain.

Secondly, the government should better play its role and optimize policy measures.

First, adhere to relatively stable support policies. Aiming at the future development direction of the industry and guided by industrial development goals, we will continue to steadily promote policies such as points for new energy vehicles to avoid the chaotic policy models of other countries. The second is to focus on key areas and links. Implement policies in key and major technical fields such as new battery pack research and development to support enterprise innovation and breakthroughs. Focus on key links in the industrial chain supply chain such as the acquisition and preparation of metal raw materials, and encourage improvements in the safety and stability of the industrial chain. The third is to constrain and standardize short-term speculation and speculation by market funds on the basis of accurately studying and judging the development trend of the industry, so that it can support the healthy development of the industry in the long term. The fourth is to encourage and support enterprises to carry out in-depth technological innovation. For example, in the field of next-generation power battery technology, it is necessary to increase investment to maintain overall competitiveness.

Thirdly, we should actively carry out pragmatic cooperation and use various channels to utilize some of the advantageous industrial chain links or technologies of other countries.

First, pay full attention to and track the research and development of cutting-edge technologies in the world, and encourage enterprises to innovate on the basis of existing technologies. Second, considering that European and American companies have mature systems and outstanding localization advantages in marketing services in their local markets, Chinese companies are encouraged to make full use of the above-mentioned advantages of European and American companies and fully carry out relevant cooperation with them. Through win-win cooperation, we can not only promote local employment, eliminate misunderstandings and prejudices, minimize attacks by European and American politicians on my country's industrial cooperation, create a development atmosphere, but also facilitate better expansion of overseas markets such as Europe and the United States.

Finally, control industrial development risks and cultivate long-term competitive advantages.

Carefully consider large-project investments and technology research and development by Chinese companies in some countries with higher risks. First, Chinese companies are legally required to avoid self-destructive cooperation models. For example, in terms of project cooperation such as ecological construction of the new energy automobile industry in competitive countries and improvement of key links in its industrial chain, legal constraints should be imposed on individual enterprises in my country to avoid behaviors that harm overall competitiveness. The second is to take precautions to control political risks. In the current context, it is necessary to fully recognize the bottomless nature of relevant competitors and prevent them from using abnormal means to damage our overseas enterprises and possibly confiscate the assets of successfully operating overseas enterprises.